What will the post-Covid-19 world look like?

How will we emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic? The one thing we can say with certainty, is that 2021 won't look much like 2019.

Life won't truly return to any semblence of normality until individuals feel safe to return to work. With the current lockdown in the UK unlikely to be even partially lifted until May at the absolute earliest, we're set for at least several more weeks, more likely months, of isolation.

Advance to Mayfair
Most organisations are suffering, smaller and medium-sized firms especially. This leads us to the first of our predictions for the post-pandemic world: oligopolies will emerge with even more dominance than before. In the tech space, that means Google, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft will benefit. They will lose sales in the short-term, but will be well-positioned to take customers from their smaller rivals, potentially through acquisition as some cash-starved businesses are sold on the cheap.

With the prominance of philosophies like 'just in time delivery' (a management strategy which ensures materials arrive only when needed), organisations tend to have small inventories. This, combined with the disruption to global supply chains, affects firms of all sizes, but the largest have the cash to sustain themselves. Apple has in the region of $245 billion in cash. Even in a pandemic, that will take some time to burn through.

The larger firms are also more likely to sway government policy and benefit from their help, thanks to friends in high places, not to mention expansive lobbying budgets. Whilst measures to help smaller firms have been announced, rules are contradictory, there are many hoops to jump through, and the backlog of applications is long.

Anti-globalisation
Globalisation, a concept which certainly has its critics, has lifted billions of people out of poverty and enabled enterprising firms to cut costs and boost innovation. But supply chains are likely to shrink in footprint in the post-pandemic world, as organisations look for more local solutions less vulnerable to cross-border disruption.

Computing contacted many of the large tech vendors early on in the Covid-19 crisis to ask about supply chain disruption, and was met with a silence simultaneously telling and deafening.

Factories in China are apparently spinning back into action, albeit at reduced capacity. Rumours abound that Apple's next phone, likely to be announced in September in a normal year, is still coming, and could be 5G-ready. Conflicting leaks from some of its suppliers suggest that it is either bang on track, or likely to be delayed. What we do know is that an intricate, global supply chain is only as strong as its weakest link.

More local supply chains may ultimately create slightly less profitable companies, but if they are more resilient, society will be better off in the next global crisis.

The good news
One constant theme of lockdown which has been seen across the globe is the surge in popularity of video conferencing. One can barely glance at Twitter without seeing a new meme involving a gallery of Zoom participants.

Their hands forced, organisations are turning to technology to enable remote working. Digital payment and e-commerce platforms, already on steep upwards trends, are seeing growth their boards used to dream about.

CIOs have cited legacy systems and applications as a cause for headache for years. Now, most are are either pushing forward or quickly sketching out plans for them to be digitised and put into the cloud. The more forward-thinking are breathing sighs of relief that they've already done just that.

Technology is the answer to many of the questions posed by the pandemic, and the big firms will continue to benefit long after restrictions after lifted. Remote working will likely remain well above pre-pandemic levels after restrictions are eventually lifted, as will usage of enabling tools in the unified communications space, and cloud services across the board.

Whilst our home and working lives won't be the same after Covid-19, there are some reasons for hope. However, governments and organisations must learn from the pandemic, and ensure that they are better prepared in future.