The future is at hand

With palm-top products posing a threat to the ubiquitous laptop, manufacturers are rising to the challenge with a lightweight response. John Geralds reports from Silicon Valley.

The battle for space in the executive briefcase will heat up in 1999ufacturers are rising to the challenge with a lightweight response. John Geralds reports from Silicon Valley. as more and more palm-sized gadgets muscle in on the traditional laptop.

The market for these smaller smart devices will grow by 45 per cent next year, to 10.7 million units, according to market research group IDC. And 3Com can expect to see its chunk of the handheld market rise to 41.4 per cent from 32 per cent this year.

IDC also predicts growth for handhelds running Microsoft Windows CE, but points out that vendors must pass several hurdles including educating the market and managing user expectations. Vendors also need to provide PC-style service and support programmes and align device price points so they do not collide with low-cost notebooks.

Notebook vendors are not giving up the space to device makers. They are preparing a new crop of notebooks with brighter screens, larger keyboards and synchronisation software, promising to be the most usable to date.

'Thin and Light' - weighing less than 5lb - is one of the phrases the laptop makers will promote next year. For instance, Gateway's Solo 3100XL weighs 4.9lb with its internal DVD-ROM drive or 4.4lb with its weight-saver module.

At the recent Comdex show IBM demonstrated its latest notebooks and desktops including new versions of its lightweight Thinkpad 560 and 600 notebooks, the 560Z and 600E. Both are available with 300MHz Pentium II processors.

Sony and Sharp showed their 3lb sub-notebooks - Sony's VAIO 505 Superslim and Sharp's Actius A1000 Ultralight.

This year, notebooks are expected to have Intel's latest version of the Celeron processor inside. Bob Jecmen, vice-president and general manager of Intel's mobile and handheld products group, acknowledged the company is developing mobile Celeron processors, along with a low-cost chip set, which it expects will help OEMs expand the sub-notebook market to new users.

"We recognise there is a range of users, usage models and budgets out there," he said. While 15 to 20 per cent of the PC market is made up of notebooks today, Jecmen said, he'd like to see that increase to 30 per cent in the near future.

Palm currently dominates the personal digital assistant (PDA) space but analysts believe that Windows CE will gain ground and Martin Reynolds, vice-president at Dataquest, was not impressed with 3Com's Palm division, aying: "Nothing exciting is coming from the Palm people. It's still a single-platform device."

Palm delayed the next version of the Palmpilot from December to the new year. Industry sources said the device, codenamed Razor, will be substantially slimmer than the existing Palm III at around one-third of an inch thick.

It will reportedly include a new and faster Motorola EZ Dragonball processor, an optional keyboard and access to online information services, but not a built-in web browser. The devices are expected to support wireless technology, an upgraded operating system and a revamped docking station, plus increased memory.

"We're clearly number one. But I don't think that we get credit for the Palm operating system," said Janice Roberts, acting general manager of Palm Computing.

The company plans to hire more engineers and expand the operating system into a range of new mobile information appliances, Roberts explained.

The company also plans to discuss support for wireless connectivity, including Bluetooth technology, which will allow the Palmpilot to share data with a cellular phone or use the phone as a wireless modem. Palm Computing has licensed the operating system to several companies including IBM, Symbol Technologies and Qualcomm.

As the number of suppliers in this space increases, demand for the systems is branching out from the classic gadget seekers to more mainstream audiences.

NEC, for example, has seen demand from corporations that want to outfit remote salesforces with CE devices.

The Windows CE portion of this solution includes some useful tools. Those on the road can use the Pocket Outlook e-mail client to check POP3 or Imap accounts or Internet Explorer to browse web pages. The Clio device includes a built-in 33.6Kbps modem.

"With mobile information appliances one size does not fit all," said Dan Epel, vice-president of marketing at Vadem.

But there are still obstacles. Windows CE, despite revisions, is still difficult to use. The first CE devices were about half the size of the Jupiter class with keyboards too small for even 'hunt-and-peck' typing.

The second generation was an obvious imitation of the Palmpilot without the Pilot's ease of use.

Analysts agreed the next generation of Jupiter devices, which should arrive within a year, are almost sure to offer better design and even lower prices.

With developments coming thick and fast, the mobile communications and computing market is set to explode over the coming year. It remains to be seen whether the giants like CE will win out, or whether the laurels will go to the smaller innovators.