Notebook challenges desktop PCs

Last year, all the PC pundits were convinced that notebooks were making the clunking old desktop PC a dinosaur. This may suit vendors, dealers and mobile users, but not the vast mass of users who still do most of their computing at their desk and want low prices and large screens and keyboards.

There has been a backlash, especially among small business buyers and, according to a recent survey from Banner, sales of desktops are rising.

But the balance may be tipped again by a rush of activity that promises to make notebooks more powerful and also brings the low-cost network computer (NC) into the equation.

The Comdex show in Las Vegas this month will see a host of notebooks with capabilities approaching those of desktops. For instance, Toshiba will demonstrate a notebook with a CD-ROM that operates at 10x rotational speed, the rate of a desktop PC drive.

Hitachi will position its new Mx Series notebook specifically as a desktop PC alternative. It will feature advanced multimedia and communications facilities including a 33.6Kbps cellular-ready modem with a 10Base-T Ethernet port, and. it also features infrared communications for wireless data transfer.

The product will be the first notebook to use side-ported stereo speakers, and it will offer advanced graphics and video support. The units are expected to sell for $4,000 (#2,484) to $5,000.

Apple announced a raft of portable models last week. It is fighting hard for its third place in the PC rankings, but Toshiba, in particular, is stealing its market share.

According to Dataquest, Toshiba doubled its shipments in the last quarter compared with the same period in 1995, jumping from number eight to number five in terms of world sales. This growth came mainly from notebook sales.

Apple saw shipments in the same quarter tumble by 28%, and has been talking about notebooks as the way forward. But Taiwanese companies will really benefit if notebooks start to edge closer to a 50% market share. Taiwan is this year set to eclipse Japan as the world's leading notebook maker.

Although PC sales will continue to rise, it seems likely that notebooks will boom in specific, and largely under-developed, application areas.

The Internet and interactive multimedia applications are seen as a key growth market for notebooks - but here they will be under threat from the NC.

NCs need to be cheaper than the initial models launched in the last weeks by Sun Microsystems and others, and they need to gain mass sales. But they will certainly change the makeup of the PC market yet again by the end of the decade.

Additional reporting by VNU News Wire