How will Trump’s tariffs impact PC prices?

Analysts predict double-digit increases

The US personal computer market could face a major shift in 2025 if President-elect Donald Trump's proposed import tariffs are implemented.

Industry analysts warn that these tariffs could increase PC prices by as much as 46%, curbing market growth despite an anticipated surge in demand driven by the Windows 10 end-of-life deadline and the growing interest in AI PCs.

Research firm Canalys projects that US PC shipments will increase by just 2% in both 2025 and 2026, down from a more robust 6% growth in 2024 that brought shipments close to 70 million units.

The anticipated slowdown is attributed to weaker momentum in the Windows 10-to-Windows 11 upgrade cycle, coupled with economic uncertainties.

President-elect Trump's proposed import tariffs are expected to be a primary disruptor.

Greg Davis, an analyst at Canalys, highlighted a recent Consumer Technology Association (CTA) study showing that laptop and tablet prices could rise by up to 46% if the tariffs are enacted.

Similarly, game console and smartphone prices could increase up to 40% and 26%, respectively.

Such a spike would likely dampen consumer and enterprise purchasing power.

"With the 2024 US Presidential election coming to a close, macroeconomic conditions in the US are not expected to be as stable in the near term as they have been over the last year or two," Davis said.

"With reports of import tariffs seemingly on the horizon, the PC market will likely be impacted in a noticeable way."

Beyond tariffs, potential federal spending cuts could also hinder PC sales, particularly in the public and education sectors.

While 2025 budgets remain largely intact, Davis warned that future technology spending in these areas might face reductions.

The looming uncertainty surrounding federal policies comes at a critical time for the PC industry.

The end of Windows 10 support on 14th October 2025 is expected to prompt businesses and consumers to refresh their PC fleets. However, many are hesitant due to confusion about what constitutes an AI-capable system, and the premium cost associated with such devices.

AI PCs, touted as the future of the industry, carry price tags 5-15% higher than traditional computers. This premium, coupled with economic uncertainties, is causing some customers to delay major purchases.

Davis explained that while businesses are showing increased interest in upgrading to Windows 11, the pace of adoption has been slower than expected.

"While Microsoft and its partners will work to improve the overall awareness of the Windows 10 end-of-life throughout 2025, we expect a sizable portion of fleet refreshes will happen after the end of service date," he predicted.

Despite these hurdles, the PC market has shown resilience.

Laptops, in particular, have driven recent growth, with shipments rising 9% year-over-year in Q3 2024.

"Both large and small businesses have begun exhibiting stronger refreshes of their PC fleets with Windows 11 devices as we entered the second half of the year," Davis said.

Seasonal discounts, such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions, could also contribute to stronger sales in late 2024.