Researchers use AI data analysis to crack ISIS tactics

Arizona State University researchers used data-driven research to gain better understanding of Islamic State military tactics

The United States is using artificial intelligence to gain a better understanding of the military tactics of the Islamic State extremist group.

Researchers from Arizona State University are performing a data-driven study in an attempt to mine for causal links between air strikes and roadside bomb attacks and their connection to the group's use of military tactics.

The revelation of the military using artificial intelligence to analyse ISIS tactics comes after one AI expert suggested intelligence agencies like the National Security Agency (NSA) and GCHQ are using AI to monitor communications.

"AI can be used by the intelligence agencies to spy on us quite effectively. Even though there's no human listening in to every email you send, it is beyond my credulity to believe that the UK secret services are not monitoring by AI agents the content of every email that we send," said Mark Bishop, professor of cognitive computing at Goldsmiths, University of London.

Arizona State's AI algorithm analysed 2,200 recorded instances of ISIS activity between July and December 2014. One of the patterns researchers discovered was spikes in the use of improvised explosive devices (IED).

"We combine ideas from logic programming and causal reasoning to mine for association rules for which we present evidence of causality," reads the Mining for Causal Relationships: A Data-Driven Study of the Islamic State report, which is set to be presented at a conference next week.

"We present relationships that link ISIS vehicle-bourne improvised explosive device (VBIED) activity in Syria with military operations in Iraq, coalition air strikes, and ISIS IED activity, as well as rules that may serve as indicators of spikes in indirect fire, suicide attacks, and arrests," the Arizona State University document adds.

Dr Paulo Shakarian, one of the co-authors of the paper and a former US army officer who served in Iraq, told the BBC some of the information the AI analysis was able to determine.

"When they experience a lot of air strikes against them they shift away from a large infantry-style operation and use IEDs," he said.

The data-driven research also found that the use of bombs attached to vehicles greatly increased ahead of large infantry operations by the militant group.

"We believe this relationship is because they want to prevent reinforcements from the Iraqi army getting out of Baghdad," said Dr Shakarian of one example of this pattern.

The study also determined that while their tactics may look similar to those allied forces faced during the Iraq war, IS strategy is different in key areas. The tactics are also more complex and dynamic than those faced nine years ago, which is why US forces weren't able to properly analyse them without the help of AI analysis.

Concluding their report, the Arizona State researchers made the case for artificial intelligence playing a larger role in military operations in future.

"We believe our approach is of significant utility for both military decision making and the creation of policy," said the document.

But while artificial intelligence has proved useful for analysing enemy tactics, experts have warned against the weaponising of AI. Stephen Hawking, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, and more than 1,000 other technology experts, researchers and scientists recently called for the military to be banned from weaponising artificial intelligence.

Europol is also using technology to fight ISIS; the law enforcement agency has established a new unit with the aim of searching for and removing ISIS social media accounts used to recruit new members to Islamic State.