Digital twins among 16 tech projects to help NHS this winter

Using AI and health records to protect the most vulnerable

The Government is looking to data science to relieve wintertime pressures on the NHS, which is dealing with massive backlogs and staff shortage.

The National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) is providing £800,000 to 16 data-driven initiatives that will use AI and existing health data records to assist the NHS deal with winter challenges.

Health Data Research UK (HDR UK) has launched the new projects, with findings anticipated by the end of March.

The effort comes as the health service is strained by a significant number of flu and COVID cases, a massive backlog worsened by the pandemic, and rising wait times for ambulances, emergency and routine care.

The projects being funded include examining hospital data to calculate how to speed up patient flow in emergency rooms; better understanding the health implications of cold homes; and helping to cut wait times for ambulances.

One project uses machine learning to forecast peaks in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection, a common disease that may cause serious illness in young children.

Another will utilise AI to digitally mimic homes that are badly affected by the cost-of-living crisis, to model the most efficient ways to help them.

King's College London's Dr Martin Chapman is spearheading research to better understand the effect of the cost-of-living problem on public health and NHS capacity.

"Living in cold, damp and mouldy homes leads to chest conditions in children and mental health problems in adolescents, and rising energy costs mean more people than ever are living with heat poverty," he said.

"We're investigating the effectiveness of interventions like support for energy bills on the health of young people by using AI to digitally mimic their household environments and evaluate the impact of simulated interventions."

Some other projects include:

• Improving characterisation, prediction and intervention for COVID- and influenza-related morbidity and mortality;

• Describing, characterising and predicting winter respiratory accident and emergency attendances, hospital and intensive care unit admissions, and deaths;

• Predicting hospital length of stay in patients with acute respiratory infections;

• SIREN Winter Pressure Study;

• DS4SmartDischarge: Data science informing complex discharge winter policy

All of the studies attempt to inform policies to protect the most vulnerable people, while preventing negative effects on the NHS.

"As a doctor who has previously treated patients in the emergency department, I am all too aware of the enormous challenges faced by the healthcare system this winter," said Professor Cathie Sudlow, chief scientist at HDR UK.

"By using existing data, research teams and infrastructure, these projects are able to respond rapidly to evolving pressures on the NHS."

Health Secretary Steve Barclay said the primary objective of this funding is to harness "the spirit of innovation" that sparked the quick rollout of Covid-19 vaccines.

Although the initiatives are too late to assist with the immediate crisis facing the NHS, it is hoped their outcomes will help the system perform better in the long run.

Once the results are delivered in March, they should be published later this year.