IT Essentials: Four more years

Here we go again

Donald Trump is due back in the White House, but the world is very different from his last term.

In 2016 the global economy was stagnant, the UK had just voted to leave the European Union, and the world was waking up to the real dangers of social media manipulation.

In 2024 the macroeconomy is plunging, Russia is overtly and aggressively expansionist and artificial intelligence has changed the disinformation game.

Trump is widely expected to lower regulation on AI, cryptocurrency and other areas, while raising tariffs on imports – up to 60% on some products – which is really worrying IT leaders in Europe. His attitude to the newly aggressive Russia, though, remains to be seen. He famously said he could end the Ukraine war “in 24 hours,” but whether that’s through talking to Putin or simply abandoning Ukraine is unclear.

And what about Elon Musk? There was a healthy dose of schadenfreude when his own actions slashed Twitter/X’s value after he took it over, but even the $44 billion he spent on the platform looks like chump change for the influence he could wield after Trump takes up residence in the White House.

Trying to predict the next four years with those two in positions of power is, frankly, a mug’s game, but it’ll be a wild and difficult ride.

“The concern is deafeningly quiet”

Penny Horwood, Associate Editor

So, we are going back. I’m not going to even try and be impartial here: I find Trump’s victory frightening and bleak for lots of reasons, not least the progressively more terrifying geopolitical instability across the world.

Despite the fact that Silicon Valley doesn’t really look much like a Republican stronghold, an article in our sister publication CRN in the US found that solution providers saw the Trump victory as a “shot in the arm” for tech and entrepreneurs. The tech and crypto bros are cockahoop, and a lot richer that they were at the start of the week. Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg will be just fine, no matter who occupies the Oval Office.

Those lobbying for less AI regulation are likely to get what they want from a President who, for at least the next two years, will be unchecked by the Senate, House or courts.

European tech leaders are more cautious, worried about the tariffs Trump has promised to implement, the wider ramifications of economic protectionism and exactly how Trump plans to bring an end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Some tech leaders in the US might also be quietly concerned about the impact of Trump’s anti-immigration policies on labour costs or the impact of state abortion bans on the health of female employees. The concern is deafeningly quiet, though.

Will the relationship between Trump and the likes of Elon Musk and Peter Thiel, who did so much to bring the MAGA message to the widest possible audience, endure? I’m not so sure. Trump’s favour can only be guaranteed by unconditional and unquestioning loyalty. His won’t be an administration in the traditional sense, it will be a court.

Trump and his courtiers might agree on the principle of smashing the DC elites. Presumably so do most of the people who voted for him. But what replaces them? There’s a lot of ego and money involved there and a very high chance of disagreement on what exactly this brave new world should look like. There may be a day where Trump isn’t extreme enough for the MAGA base.

Revolutions always devour their own children. In the end.

Want even more election coverage? We’ve released a special bonus episode of the Ctrl Alt Lead podcast talking to Professor Grant Neeley of the University of Dayton, Ohio about what a second Trump presidency will look like; and chatted with UK IT leaders about how they’re preparing.

While Americans were heading to the polls, we hosted our largest diversity event of the year: the Women and Diversity in Tech and Channel Festival, where we covered important topics like imposter syndrome and the biology gap, as well as how to build high-performing teams and how Lloyds is optimising its software stack.

We’ve also looked at how architecture firm SimpsonHaugh used thin clients to provide an experience equal to or better than their old high-end PCs, and the coming effects of the Online Safety Act. Are you ready?