Peter Cochrane: The General Election and the UK's full-fibre failures

The UK could have had full-fibre 20 years ago, but for government short-sightedness. But this election's fibre promises should be treated with scepticism, writes Professor Peter Cochrane

Through the 1970s, 1980s, and much of 1990s, BT Labs was one of three recognised leaders in the technology of optical fibre communication and network deployment.

By the mid-1980s we had demonstrated that optical fibre networks could be deployed economically in long and short-haul networks.

In addition, we had played a major role in the development and deployment of the first undersea cable systems spanning the Atlantic. The scene was therefore set for the digitalisation of the global telecoms world.

By about 1990 every BT network node (switch) was being connected by fibre with astonishing improvements in service levels and reliability. This was accompanied by significant reductions in operational expenditure (OPEX) and reduced staffing levels.

For a FTTH/P network servicing the whole of the UK, the bill will be close to £5 billion per year, not £230 million

So, the next goal was the local loop and the realisation of an all-fibre network connecting every home, office and premise across the UK. This was to be the ultimate ‘future proof' network of bandwidth and services on demand.

Cost parity for fibre-to-the-premises against copper under all circumstances was first achieved in 1986, with a projected OPEX cut of 80 per cent. Staffing was also expected to shrink by a further 125,000 leaving BT with some 35,000 staffers.

This then set the scene for a commercial venture with chemical giant DuPont and the building of a high-tech manufacturing plant in Ipswich to supply all the devices and components. At the same time, the old Post Office Factories Department in Birmingham was transformed into a modern plant for the production of systems.

So, by 1991 prototype equipment was being rolled out in local-loop trials and the last install, operation and maintenance issues had been ironed out.

In parallel, BT was completing all-digital switching installations, while planning for the introduction of synchronous digital working. We were poised for the final leap into what was about to become the start of the global internet era.

Installing and upgrading to FTTH/P is not difficult, but it is not cheap or fast either

One of the most remarkable aspects of this story is the fact that BT mutated from a sleepy, ineffective and under-funded government department (the Post Office) into a fully fledged public company between 1969 to 1984.

More remarkable still, it became a world-beating international entity in an even shorter period

What could possibly go wrong?

In the US, Judge Greene famously presided over an anti-trust case between AT&T and the government that resulted in the break-up of AT&T into the ‘Baby Bells' and the defenestration of AT&T's Bell Labs. All this was done in the name of the battle cry: "The Markets have to be liberalised and more competition is needed".

During the 1980s, at the same time as BT was being privatised, the-then Thatcher government decided that what BT really needed, alongside privatisation, was a bracing blast of competition. By 1990, however, the patchwork quilt of local cable television companies hadn't exactly taken the game to BT. Despite enjoying franchise areas encompassing 15 million homes, only 828,000 were connected, and the UK's cable television services could boast just 149,000 subscribers.

BT was still too powerful, as far as the government was concerned, and if it were to complete its FTTP plans that would probably be that for the US cable companies and their half-hearted, lackadaisical expansion into the UK. Indeed, the incoming cable companies had rolled-out their own copper telephony networks.

To do anything significant in a five-to-ten year time-frame will need the engagement of every FTTH/P company in the UK

The rest, as they say, is history, and the UK has gone from being a broadband pioneer to a laggard at the back of the pack.

Sadly, the legacy of all this is a patchwork of copper, fibre-copper, and fibre-based networks that fail to service the needs and ambitions of a nation. Right now, only about seven per cent of UK premises enjoy FTTP [PDF], while the majority have to twiddle their thumbs with a broadband download dribble of less than 100Mbit/s.

As for copper upload speeds - they preclude cloud working on any scale, and the whole network limits mobile working, tele-health and tele-education and many more modern services.

A not so obvious consequence of all this is the patchy 3G and 4G mobile service and the difficulty of moving to 5G when the base bandwidth of over 1Gbit/s is not available at tower and hub sites.

Lies, damn lies and election promises

So, mid-election we have the Conservatives offering to invest £5 billion for fibre to every home (FTTH) by 2025, while Labour wants to invest £20 billion to get FTTP everywhere by 2030.

Right now, only about seven per cent of UK premises enjoy FTTP

At the same time, though, they want to make it a free service at an OPEX of only £230 million, according to the Party's own ‘Funding Real Change' document, while nationalising most of BT (and possibly Virgin Media and CityFibre, too).

The reality is that running networks of any kind comes with significant challenges and does not come cost-free! Cables get damaged and equipment failures occur, and then there is the continuous advance of technology, services and customer demand.

Keeping ahead of all this is no mean feat. For a FTTH/P network servicing the whole of the UK, the bill will be close to £5 billion per year, not £230 million. That is why commercial astuteness and the profit motive are required.

Installing and upgrading to FTTH/P is not difficult, but it is not cheap or fast either. Manpower and physical resources are big issues: to do anything significant in a five-to-ten year time-frame will need the engagement of every FTTH/P company in the UK, plus the empowerment of community network groups.

To think that OpenReach can do all of this alone would be folly.

Professor Peter Cochrane OBE is the former CTO of BT, who now works as a consultant focusing on solving problems and improving the world through the application of technology. He is also a professor at the University of Suffolk's School of Science, Technology and Engineering.