Peter Cochrane: Energy and resources are no longer free
We need new thinking
In 1973 The Club of Rome published a report pointing out that continuous exponential growth in population, industrialisation and resource consumption is unsustainable on a planet of finite resources.
Assuming the prevailing growth trends in population, industrialisation, pollution, food production, and resource depletion continued, they demonstrated that our global systems would likely collapse within 100 years.
It was also predicted that resources would become increasingly scarce and expensive; industrial output growth would lead to rising pollution with significant environmental and health issues. Agriculture would also struggle to keep pace with rising demand, and widespread food shortages would follow. Ultimately, a rapid decline in population would ensue.
The report also suggested that it was possible to alter the key growth trends to establish ecological and economic stability sustainable far into the future. However, this was dependent on an urgent remodelling of society, the economic systems, and a shift from growth to global equilibrium. The need for a holistic approach capable of dealing with the inherent complexity and interconnectedness of a near infinity of "things" was highlighted as a core challenge.
Capitalist economies will destroy the planet if left unchecked
These findings sparked significant debate, increased the awareness of key environmental issues and the concept of a future based on sustainable development. This influenced the formulation of Industry 3.0/4.0 and Society 4.0/5.0. But given that the human population in 1973 was around four billion and it is now more than eight billion, and the political and economic models have not changed significantly, we can assume our species is ever closer to the precipice.
Perhaps our best excuse for non-action might be that we have only just realised the necessary enabling technologies in terms of computing and AI to fully understand and tackle the problems!
Our computers, automation, networks, emerging IoT and new materials now power societies and have done so by delivering far more at an ever reducing material, energy and financial cost per unit. For example, Gordon Moore's Law sees us all wearing, carrying, owning super computers, travelling in advanced vehicles, and enjoying an abundance of food and materialism that was inconceivable in 1973.
The elephant in the room is that the delivery of this level of affluence is not sustainable for eight billion people! It is difficult to get accurate data, but my best estimate is that we are consuming/demanding around 40% more resources than our planet can sustainably deliver.
Looking back to the early Internet, energy was plentiful and considered to be "almost free" with bit data transport, storage, servers and user equipment energy costs running at less than 1% of global demand. However, the growth of computing power, connectivity, social networks, mobility and cloud computing sees it at more than 2% today.
We also have 5G mobile cell sites consuming 10kW per tower with operators starting to manage the expense by turning some towers off for low call density periods. Projections for a future 6G suggest energy demands will grow to more than 25kW per tower, and an increase in the number of required cell sites may see a further ten-fold expansion. At the same time, the entry of cryptocurrencies, AI, and especially periods of AI training, appear to be responsible for a further 2% - 10%.
Such an energy expenditure would appear unsustainable, but significant reductions can be engineered with more efficient hardware, tighter code and data sharing. Engineers and technologists, also have a key part to play by including energy to the list of parameters they choose to optimise at the design stage.
On the down side: quantum computing, the IoT and 6G mobile have the potential to be big contributors to global energy demand in their present form, and we need new thinking!
Peter Cochrane OBE, DSc, University of Hertfordshire